All Posts By

Sam Bass Jr.

The Cone of Uncertainty

By | The Friday Brief | One Comment

As Hurricane Florence continues endangering lives and destroying property, many of us wait in uncertainty, wondering how homes, boats, and treasured landmarks are faring. It’s personal and emotional kind of uncertainty, the kind that can’t be addressed by probabilities. But on the statistical side, the National Weather service could not have done a better job of predicting the path of Hurricane Florence, despite the  challenges of several high and low pressure systems, two tropical storms and three hurricanes in the region, each with their own degrees of uncertainty. The image below depicts the cone of uncertainty six days ago. The accuracy has

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The Right Tools and Experience

By | The Friday Brief | No Comments

One of the joys of having our office at Five Points is the endless opportunity it provides to meet colorful people. Yesterday provided another one. About closing time, I heard some discussing the scene in our front parking as they headed out the door. Seems there was a guy with a flat tire, trunk open, busily tossing out stuff to uncover his spare and creating what looked like a yard sale of hunting and fishing equipment around his car. A few minutes later, when everyone was gone and the office was quiet, I wrapped up from my day and started

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Inflation, the Fed, and Markets

By | The Friday Brief | No Comments

President Trump weighed in yesterday on one of the last truly apolitical federal institutions; the Federal Reserve. He bemoaned the possibility that their recent interest rate increases might derail his attempts to improve economic growth to what he believes is closer to its true potential – 3% and higher. However, the economists of the Federal Reserve believe that an economy picking up steam or one growing too fast will cause inflation to rise above their stated targets of 2% for inflation. The argument pits politics against policy as presidents win or lose on the strength of the economy during their

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The Second Quarter of 2018

By | The Friday Brief | No Comments

The economy continues to plow ahead, despite the threat of trade wars and uncertainty of US trade status on this continent, Europe and Asia. For the year so far, stocks as measured by the S&P 500 and the Vanguard Total US Market index are up 4.7% and 6.3%, respectively. All of that return has come in the second quarter, which is the topic of today’s Brief. Possibility of an all-out global trade war and the threat of regulatory risks of technology companies, like Facebook and Google, drove the market down during the first quarter. But a meeting between President Trump and

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Declare Your Independence from the Pitfalls of Aging

By | The Friday Brief | No Comments

We just celebrated our 242nd year of independence from the tyranny of King George’s taxes, tariffs, and regulations. A brave few representatives from thirteen British colonies signed their names to a document that would have resulted in their deaths as traitors to the Crown should their cause have failed. The document, our Declaration of Independence, begins with a sentence that reflects a level of passion and resolve that resonates deeply in our souls and indeed with all who hear it. We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator

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Planning and Social Security

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This year, some 45.5 million Americans will receive $63 billion in retirement benefits, according to the Social Security Administration. Of these recipients 65 years or older, 50% of married couples and 71% of unmarried persons depend on Social Security for more than 50% of their income. Indeed, all of our clients’ plans depend, to some degree, on Social Security for future or continued funding of their retirement needs. According to the latest Board of Trustees report released in July of 2017, if nothing is done to address the problems, the Social Security Trust Fund will be exhausted in 16 years. To be

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The Endless Immensity of You

By | The Friday Brief | No Comments

Allure motivates us far more than thought or logic. Abstract ideas just don’t change our behavior like longings and desires do. In his book You Are What You Love, James K.A. Smith says, “We adopt ways of life that are indexed to such visions of the good life, not usually because we ‘think through’ our options, but rather because some picture captures our imagination.” He uses an excerpt from Exupéry’s The Little Prince to illustrate: “If you want to build a ship, don’t drum up people to collect wood and don’t assign them tasks and work, but rather teach them

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Simplify For Understanding, But Maintain Effectiveness

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Isn’t it refreshing when experts make complex subjects understandable through stories or practical examples, without making us feel like we’re getting the dummies’ version? They seem to effortlessly guide us through what were before, mysterious mazes of confusion, with ease and clarity, and without a bunch of Latin, high-level math, or complex technical mumbo jumbo. They understand that we naturally and effectively learn through example, not abstraction and take no pleasure lording their knowledge over us. Rather their goal is to share the benefits of their wisdom and experience in a language and style that their listeners will understand and

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A Wealth of Decisions

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The most important requirement for creating and protecting wealth is good decision-making. Seems obvious, until we remind ourselves of our own costly financial missteps. And before you get too hard on yourself, consider the colossal ones made by major CEOs, almost on a daily basis (i.e. Facebook and Wells Fargo of late).   Good decision-making is not a natural thing. In fact, we must work against our natural human biases to improve the quality and effectiveness of our decisions. In their book, Decisive, brothers and professors Chip and Dan Heath lay out a process they call WRAP to overcome our

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Dis·in·te·gra·tion

By | The Friday Brief | No Comments

Disintegration: To lose unity, integrity, or strength by or as if by breaking into parts, as defined by Merriam Webster. Our social, political and institutional systems offer, on a daily basis, glaring examples of the debilitating impact of ‘breaking into parts.’ Self interest and promotion, two of our most natural traits since our beginning, are now amplified by social media to unprecedented heights, or depths, and with terrible effect. But today, we’ll focus on a more subtle, but equally costly aspect of disintegration at the individual or family level. It’s the idea of making important financial and life decisions without knowing

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